The expert assessed the likelihood of the return of Russian troops to Kyiv

“After the defeat of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Donbass, Ukraine will have no regular army left”

The Russian General Staff considered it expedient to concentrate its efforts on the liquidation of the Donbass grouping of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (APU). To this end, it was decided to withdraw troops from the Kiev and Chernigov directions. For some reason, this controlled maneuver inspired the Kiev leadership, which considered that “victory is not far off.” For example, Zelensky’s PR adviser Alexei Arestovich said that the probability of the return of Russian military units to Kyiv is less than one percent. MK asked military expert Yevgeny Linin to evaluate this statement.


– Let's not forget that Arestovich is primarily a propagandist helping Zelensky to support a certain information agenda. All his speeches testify to this. In one of them, he exposed himself, talking about the mechanisms that the Kiev authorities use to fool the citizens of Ukraine.

So, what does his words mean that there is only one percent chance of an attack on Kyiv by the Russian Armed Forces? In fact, the situation is unfolding in such a way that the armed formations of Ukraine do not have reserves. Everyone they have is now actually on the front lines. They are not able to counterattack or inflict any tactical damage on the Russian troops and the forces of the LPR and DPR.

This is confirmed by the so-called counterattack on Kherson, where the 28th separate motorized infantry brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine was surrounded. A video is already being published on the Web, where Ukrainian servicemen from the brigade curse their command and ask for help.

Any sane person already understands that they, of course, will not receive any help. In general, as we can see, no blockaded units of the Ukrainian armed formations receive assistance from the main forces.

– The General Staff of Ukraine simply does not set itself the task of preserving manpower and equipment. Roughly speaking, they have no time for them: Kyiv is busy solving geopolitical problems, such as joining the European Union and recognizing NATO. But even that is just a cover. In fact, the main goal of Zelensky and his team is the money they receive from various international financial institutions. These funds are spent by Zelensky's leadership uncontrollably at their discretion.

In addition to financial assistance, they also receive weapons. What's the output? The country does not actually work, the economy is destroyed in the country, there are no armaments factories, although they claim that the country is at war. There are no resources to mobilize. And with all this, Kyiv declares that they are winning…

Because it's also money. And the tool for earning this money is the civilian population and the armed forces, which supposedly protect this population. In fact, there is no protection for the civilian population, there is no protection for the economic and infrastructural potential of the country. If the authorities tried to preserve all this, then the troops would be stationed on the outskirts of cities, and not in a residential area. Look how many of their own bridges were blown up by the Ukrainian troops themselves. Despite the fact that the Russian units have not yet destroyed a single bridge, they are only taking them under control.

The question is, why then does Kiev have so many weapons? Then that it can be sold. In fact, they are already selling it. Be that as it may, Ukraine occupies one of the leading positions in the trade in weapons, including those stolen from NATO countries, which they now receive as part of assistance.

In modern realities, finding sales points is not a problem . Now almost the whole world is at war. Africa, the Middle East are fighting. Take, for example, the fact that the Yemeni Houthis are shelling the territory of Saudi Arabia with Tochka-U missiles sold to them by Ukraine itself.

– Now the personnel of the Ukrainian army has replenished at the expense of the mobilized. Ukraine expends manpower, regardless of any moral principles. They just dispose of it and that's it. This is another confirmation of the genocide in relation to their people.

It seems to me that the military personnel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine should already understand that if they fall into the “cauldron”, then no one will pull them out of there, there will be no deblocking blow. No one will supply them with weapons or provisions from the air. There can be no “air bridge”, if only because of the complete dominance of Russian aviation. The sky over Ukraine is closed to everyone.

Now Ukrainian and foreign mass media admire the Azov fighters (recognized as terrorist, banned in the Russian Federation. – “MK”), who have been holding the defense of Mariupol for a month and a half. I want to tell them: “Guys, you don’t fully understand what is happening.”

For eight years, fortified bases were created there, they were literally dug into the ground. It's really hard to get them out of there. On the eve of the special operation, on February 23, Zelensky and Akhmetov came to Azovstal, where they talked with foreign specialists who continue to stay there to this day.

Obviously, there are a lot of foreign mercenaries on the territory of the metallurgical enterprise. Therefore, the leaders of some states are clearly concerned about the siege of this object. It is known for certain that there are Turkish instructors there – more precisely, this is how it is presented to us, but in fact they are ordinary mercenaries. The order of a company of Turkish personnel. That is why Erdogan asked very much to provide an evacuation corridor so that the fighters could leave along with the civilian population.

But the negotiations in Istanbul failed, respectively, no one came forward to meet him. Also there are French mercenaries. This is the reason why Macron called Putin almost every day at one time. And these are also not instructors, but fighters serving in the Foreign Legion, who received leave in order to fight on the side of Ukraine.

We don't have options. We must proceed, firstly, from expediency, and secondly, from the risks that we will incur if we do not take Kyiv. In fact, an anti-Russian state was created in Ukraine in eight years, the goal of which is war with Russia. Therefore, it is impossible to say that by liberating the Donetsk and Lugansk republics and reaching their administrative borders, we will thereby resolve the issue of denazification and demilitarization of Ukraine. The remainder must also be released. At the very least, everything located to the east of the Dnieper must be liberated. But with the rest, you can negotiate – with the condition of complete demilitarization and a ban on the import and trade in weapons.

Let me return to Arestovich's words about “one percent of the probability of the return of Russian troops to Kyiv.” What do we have today? An almost completely destroyed group in Mariupol. Blocked grouping in Odessa and Kharkov. Withdrawal of Russian troops from Kyiv and regrouping under the so-called “Donetsk Bulge”. The upcoming operation to liberate Kramatorsk and Slavyansk. The final cleansing of all national formations of Ukraine in the territory of Donetsk and Luhansk regions. This will all happen in the near future.

What will Ukraine have left after the defeat of their Donbass grouping, which is now concentrated near Kramatorsk? They are losing at least fifty thousand fighters of the regular army, about forty thousand national guardsmen and territorial troops. It should also be taken into account that the Pavlograd group, which is supposedly created to release and support the Ukrainian forces concentrated in Slavyansk and Kramatorsk, will also suffer losses. But in fact, its task is to strengthen the defense of the Dnieper and create a new fortified area in Pavlograd itself. One hundred percent – both of these groups will be destroyed by the Russian Armed Forces.

And after all this, what prevents the 45th airborne special forces brigade from returning to Gostomel, and then to Kyiv itself? What will stand in their way, according to Arestovich, Zelensky and whoever it is? Ukraine, in fact, will no longer have a regular army that could resist Russia. No terbats or other groups are capable of this. A regular army can only be opposed by a regular army.

– Their main goal is to create the impression that they have a chance to win. The Kyiv authorities are simply fooling the Ukrainians, creating the illusion that they are supposedly winning. This is done, firstly, to reassure its population. Secondly, to raise the morale of their armed forces. And, thirdly, they, of course, are deceiving the West. Because the so-called allies can supply weapons to Ukraine only as long as their population supports it. As soon as the myth is destroyed, the public will ask: “What are we doing in Ukraine? Why are we supplying arms to the fascists?” And that's all. No government in the West can answer this question.

Therefore, I would like to emphasize once again that the task of returning our Armed Forces to Kiev does not depend on the Ukrainian authorities – it depends only on the decision of the Russian commander in chief. And if such a task is set, no one will be able to prevent it.


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